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#1453163 - 07/06/08 10:25 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: stfcatfish]
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HotSpotOutdoors Specialist
Registered: 03/21/02
Posts: 5313
Loc: Chisholm, MN USA
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Thanks stfcatfish!! We have been hearing from some for so long that all we need to do is drive less and the price will drop, only to now have it come out that some big time investors are driving up the prices, to their gain. I also read the report by Micheal Masters that pointed out a loophole exists to allow this and he has been trying to get Congress to close it.
Bob, I agree that we are not in a doomsday scenerio, but things are not all roses either. The media is always going to play up the human drama side of things like people losing there houses, it gets people to tune in for the late night news and sell commercial air time. People want to hear that all is good, but they are going to watch on the news time after time.
I also survived the 80s recession, lay offs, plant closings. So the chicken little things is not believable. But turning a blind eye to the fact that we are heading a little downhill and not trying to turn it around is not a good plan either.
_________________________
Ya Sure We Bite Cha!!
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#1453211 - 07/06/08 11:45 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: BobT]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 718
Loc: bemidji
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thanks Bob, a little perspective makes things a little clearer about how bad it is. We have lived through good times and want them to continue not believing that every year cant be a good year. I was just a kid in the 80's but I remember families with a mom at home everyday, 1 car and 1 truck in the driveway, a 16 ft tiller boat, no four wheelers, and a homemade fish house in the yard. Today we expect a truck, car, van, 19 ft boat, 20 ft fishouse, fourwheelers, snowmobiles, and no mom in the $160,000 house because she has to work fulltime along with dad to keep up on the payments. So if prices go up now a family that is already stetched thin financily will think it is a huge deal and have a harder time coping. It is priorities, as a society instead of saving for the future and living within in our means we live on the edge of bankruptcy and have no cusion to get us through the lean times. We want it all and want it now.
Edited by papabear (07/07/08 09:22 AM)
_________________________
when you find yourself in a hole, stop diggin'
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#1453251 - 07/06/08 01:52 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: papabear]
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FishingMN Family
Registered: 08/31/05
Posts: 130
Loc: Out West
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I also remember gas lines, maximum and minimum purchase amounts for gas, and people cancelling vacations because they did not know if they would be able to get gas. I also remember news storys about lines going around the block because a new hotel was opening and people were applying for the jobs. Now they would worry about having enough employees. However, they have changed the way that the inflation index is calculated. If it was now calculated the same way it was in the 70's the inflation rate would be 11-12%. If they measured it the old way it would devistate Social Security and other entitlements. I saw a news item recently that taked about the California retirement board and others investing in commodoties including oil. I think the value of their funds is up something like 68%. When this bubble bursts, I can just about hear the crying and the demands for bailouts now. I hope our congress gets it together long enough to get reign in this speculation.
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#1453264 - 07/06/08 02:12 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: candiru]
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Sr HotSpotOutdoors Family
Registered: 03/20/06
Posts: 2429
Loc: Osakis, MN
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Changing the way we calculate it doesn't change the facts. We still enjoy cheap money, low unemployment, and the ability to move more than we did then. The average vehicle today sees at least about 20,000 miles per year. The average family didn't drive that much back then much less each vehicle. Driving just eight or ten miles to town was a weekly event if we were lucky and forget about going 50 miles, that was a yearly event maybe. Today it's nothing to jump in the car, drive ten miles to get a loaf of bread. The average person couldn't afford to live like that 30 years ago not to mention all the extras we have today like this PC that I am typing on.
Upnorth, I hope you didn't get the impression that I don't believe things are tough. Not even close but when one listens to the media, weather channel, etc, you'd think the sky was about to fall. It's a part of life and living. We (society) do a good job these days of embellishing it to our own personal gain rather than reality. Between the doomsday asteroids, comets, hurricanes, tsunamis, earthquakes, vulcanos, falling house values, rise in fuel costs, climate change, inflation, droughts, terrorists, or name it we aren't experiencing anything that hasn't been a threat to our existence since man's first steps. Nothing new, only played up a lot more than it used to be because now we've learned to turn profit by playing it up.
Bob
_________________________
Before I learned how to cast a line, I did not know how to cast a line.
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#1453382 - 07/06/08 06:42 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: BobT]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 04/27/08
Posts: 955
Loc: Lake St.Croix Beach Minnesota
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I think society has become full of, how should I say, Drive by looky lues you know when someone drives by an accident to see if they can get a glimpse of what happen. I catch myself doing that and I force my way through. It has become almost enterainment, not in the good sence, for the media because they know it means veiwership. The doom and gloom sells. I think it sells because society wants confirmation that things arnt as good as we want it to be, rather than standing back and looking at we have and being gratefull for what we have.
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get out of the way of water flowing up hill because its gonna come back down
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#1453441 - 07/06/08 07:59 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: BobT]
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HotSpotOutdoors Specialist
Registered: 03/21/02
Posts: 5313
Loc: Chisholm, MN USA
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Upnorth, I hope you didn't get the impression that I don't believe things are tough. Not even close but when one listens to the media, weather channel, etc, you'd think the sky was about to fall. It's a part of life and living. Maybe a little bit, but then many have gotten used things being easy and that isn't so good either. Much of the housing issue is people buying what they can't truly afford. Home prices ran up to high too fast, folks were thinking they were going to solve all their money problems by investing in property. Things just went up too fast. I think the average is something like 4% per year or so of value, many double in 3 or 4 years. That can't be sustained.
_________________________
Ya Sure We Bite Cha!!
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#1454119 - 07/07/08 02:23 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: croixflats]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 02/01/07
Posts: 623
Loc: Isle
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Good point Croixflats. Maybe we tend to think to much about what we don't have when we should be thinking and being greatful for what we do have. Just a thought.
_________________________
"If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog" Harry S. Truman
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#1454132 - 07/07/08 02:29 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: croixflats]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 02/01/07
Posts: 623
Loc: Isle
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Good point Croixflats. Maybe we tend to think to much about what we don't have when we should be thinking and being greatful for what we do have. Just a thought.
_________________________
"If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog" Harry S. Truman
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#1454354 - 07/07/08 05:56 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: upnorth]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 04/27/08
Posts: 955
Loc: Lake St.Croix Beach Minnesota
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You got that right things just went up to in price to fast. I remember a while ago seeing reports on prices on homes in Califonia, a home that went for $98,000 here in the cities and one comperable out there went for $200,000. It didnt take long for us to catch up to the Califonia market.
_________________________
get out of the way of water flowing up hill because its gonna come back down
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#1454396 - 07/07/08 06:53 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: croixflats]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 01/18/06
Posts: 718
Loc: bemidji
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interesting watching the news channels today. Oil dips $5 and the analysts keep saying dont get excited oil will be $200 if Isreal attacks Iran, The dollar doesnt climb fast enough, or something else happens. Basicaly they say I want to keep making money on oil and do not want this bubble to burst so I am on TV telling investors to keep investing in the bubble. one guy did say that this may be part of a change in prices but he spoke last and only had a couple of seconds to get this point out.
_________________________
when you find yourself in a hole, stop diggin'
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#1454733 - 07/07/08 10:59 PM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: papabear]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 04/27/08
Posts: 955
Loc: Lake St.Croix Beach Minnesota
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Yea its funny how the major news channels put more emphasis on one side then gives a short rebuttal on the opposite side. Gee I wonder why. I dont see the independent channels doing that.
And to use The Israel thing to back up there argument. I see that argument as ploy. Kinda of curious when one weak we get Gates admitting to covert operations in Iran then a short time later we get Isreal talking of exercising there right to defend them selves against Iran with military enforcement.
_________________________
get out of the way of water flowing up hill because its gonna come back down
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#1454810 - 07/08/08 06:03 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: papabear]
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HotSpotOutdoors Specialist
Registered: 03/21/02
Posts: 5313
Loc: Chisholm, MN USA
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interesting watching the news channels today. Oil dips $5 and the analysts keep saying dont get excited oil will be $200 if Isreal attacks Iran, More wag the dog. Actually the shrinking value of the dollar may be a good thing in the long run as it will make it more attractive to manufacture products here in the US and that will bring back more blue collar manufacturing jobs.
_________________________
Ya Sure We Bite Cha!!
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#1454821 - 07/08/08 06:27 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: upnorth]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 12/24/00
Posts: 1164
Loc: Mars
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One of the two main reasons I will not be voting for McCain is because I'm convinced that once he's elected, Isreal will bomb Iran with the knowledge that we'll back them up. The second of course is the old political saying "It's the economy stupid". Meaning of course that McCain, who willingly admits he knows nothing about economics, will keep this economy on the brink of recession.
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So, if there's a tourist season, why can't we shoot them?
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#1454922 - 07/08/08 08:21 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: Kidd]
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HotSpotOutdoors Family
Registered: 12/28/06
Posts: 263
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[quote=Kidd The second of course is the old political saying "It's the economy stupid". Meaning of course that McCain, who willingly admits he knows nothing about economics, will keep this economy on the brink of recession.
[/quote]
I am no big McCain fan, but just what in Obama's background makes you believe he is an economics expert? You are fooling yourself if you think any presidents personal knowledge of economincs is going to turn this economy one way or another.
Yes, policy decisions can and do nudge the economy, but I certainly hope any president we elect has real economists on staff to consult with and not rely on his own limited background in economics.
I actually find it refreshing to hear a politician admit a weakness in an area like economics. Certainly McCain will have policy preferences like not trying to fix the economy by building bigger government, but admiting some weakness in this area assures me that he will consult and rely on experts for specific policy proposals.
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#1455072 - 07/08/08 10:25 AM
Re: Speculation and the high price of Oil.
[Re: walleye101]
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Sr FishingMN Family
Registered: 02/01/07
Posts: 623
Loc: Isle
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KId, so what do you think think the US should do if Israel (spelled correctly) bombs Iran?
_________________________
"If you want a friend in Washington, get a dog" Harry S. Truman
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